Eric Toner, senior researcher at the Center Security His health Johns Hopkins and a world leader in readiness for pandemics, has informed world leaders about pandemic cases, in an effort to prepare nations for mass casualties. It has simulated real-time epidemics and studied the response of the world to global emergencies, such as the 1918 flu pandemic and SARS. As for the COVID-19 pandemic, this is not something new for Toner. Among the key points Toner mentions about COVID-19 is that we will wear masks for years. But let's take a closer look at Toner and his work on pandemics.
In October 2019, Toner and Johns Hopkins' team conducted a simulation of a Coronation pandemic in New York, months before COVID-19 began to spread around the world. Toner met with other health professionals to discuss the possibility of a theoretical Koronoi crash, as well as the response of governments and private operational in such a situation.
Johns Hopkins has been doing such simulations for years, with code names like "Dark Winter" (smallpox) and "Clade X" ("a biologically engineered, deliberately released airborne pathogen" that has caused hundreds of millions of hypothetical deaths). The aim of the simulations is to help public health experts and policy makers better prepare for a real pandemic. And now such a pandemic has come true. But simulating a pandemic is far from seeing the world handling a real pandemic. Toner says some countries are failing to meet the pandemic, citing USA. In particular, he described the US response to the COVID-19 pandemic as "extremely disappointing and wrong", stressing that the US must acknowledge that it is "claiming" the first or second place in the country most affected by the virus.
Toner points out that we should be ignorant not to be afraid of the COVID-19 pandemic now, as it is worse than other pandemics and will remain a "really bad event" in history. He adds that while the world is entering the second half of the pandemic, the situation remains just as serious.
According to a July 1 announcement by Johns Hopkins (who monitors the pandemic's statistics and provides regular reports on the situation), the pandemic has affected almost all countries, with more than 10 million reported. incidents and more than half a million deaths. Of the at least 200 countries and regions reporting cases, 86 report community transmission.
Many countries have been successful in the fight against Coronation, imposing early lockdown, adopting in time the advice of the World Health Organization (masks, antiseptics, etc.) and speeding up the diagnostic tests for the detection and isolation of localized outbreaks of infection. But now that countries are returning to "normalcy" and reopening, slowly adopting masks and other measures that may remain in the spotlight for years, cases continue to rise.
Toner says he can't know if it's a first or second wave, but that doesn't matter since there's no difference. He adds that cases are making a comeback in some states, which seems like a simple continuation of the first wave. In other states, this may look like a second wave of COVID-19. Toner notes that it is clear that there is a significant resurgence of incidents in the summer, which is expected to become even greater. And that will continue to happen until the countries "close" again.
Unlike the flu virus, which was behind the 1918 pandemic that is estimated to have killed more than 50 million people worldwide, Toner claims that there is no "good indication of seasonality" for COVID. 19. Until it grows vaccine, any increase or decrease in cases will be based on social factors, such as lockdown for example. He also said that in 1918 people wore masks.
However, Toner also reports some positives that emerged from the first half of the pandemic. In particular, hospitals are improving symptom management and intervening before incidents reach a point where there will be no return, significantly reducing the death rate. He also points to treatments such as remdeshivir, which has shown positive results in trials and has been approved for hospital patients with COVID-19, and plasma therapy, which could be used as a means of transmitting a level of immunity to patients.
Experts say it will take at least a year to develop a vaccine that will be available to most people. At the same time, mass immunization is unlikely to come until 2022, and even then, Toner argues, vaccination may require a double dose to be effective.
Until then, Toner believes that we will live (at best) for several years with masks and some degree social distancing. For many, this long schedule can lead to a sense of despair. But Toner says there is a way to control our future, and it's not much different from the advice he has given to simulations, advice that dates back more than a century. If we all cover our faces with masks, the risk of transmitting the virus is reduced, while being outside, being at a distance from each other, significantly reduces the risk of transmitting the virus.
According to Toner, there are many things we can do while adhering to the recommended measures protection. We can keep our distance, avoid crowded places, go to a quiet beach, mountains, lakes - we can do many things without a problem. As for those who refuse to wear masks, Toner does not "chew his words" and says that at some point they will "get over it" and wear masks, but they will first need to be sick and many people die to be convinced to do so. this. Finally, Toner warns that this is a test that can last for years.