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Bill Gates: Schools open in the fall and the economy collapses

Bill Gates believes schools will be able to open in the fall, he told Becky Quick on CNBC.

"I think the school will be able to continue in the fall," Gates said. "But I do not think this school year will have a significant turnout. You know, maybe in the summer, people will do something special. "But that would be very difficult to do."

Governments around the world have ordered people to stay home, and elected officials in Arizona, California, Michigan, Washington and other states have closed schools for the rest of the academic year.

Some schools have allowed students to attend distance learning through it Internet, but Gates noted that many Students they do not have them computers or internet connections that are necessary for distance learning.

"Most private schools are accustomed to online classes and have made sure that all their students have the device and connectivity," he added. "Different school districts decided not to do it online course because it would be unfair to children who do not have access. And so it's really a dilemma. There are several philanthropists like Ray Dalio, Jeff Bezos and many others trying to bridge this gap - you know, to give some devices and connectivity to Internet. "

In general, the United States could "open" in late May, Gates said. Before a vaccine is available, he said, countries with significant epidemics need to figure out what activities need to be restored. He suggested that people could probably return to the construction industry and hopefully to education.

"I do not think the big sporting events are something that will be possible in the near future as it carries a lot of risks," he said.

Gates noted that businesses in China they will reopen immediately and the country will be one of the first to face the consequences of the corona.

"Governments need to follow all the advice of experts and create a new regime for what is happening - it is extremely sensitive that the economy needs to recover, but with priority given to tests," Gates said.

He also said the economy would not magically return to pre-pandemic levels, even when governments decide that it is safe for people to return to work.

"People's behavior in relation to going on trips to an event or a restaurant will change completely because of worries about the coronavirus," he said. "No one should believe that governments will shake their magic wand and each country's economy will return to what it was before the pandemic. This means that a healing miracle will come that will have a cure rate of over 95%, or widespread use of the vaccine. "

Bill Gates

A vaccine can be developed in 18 months

Last month, Gates resigned from Microsoft's board of directors, which he founded 45 years ago, wanting to focus on his health work at Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which has pledged up to $ 100 million to respond to the coronavirus, has backed a corona test that people can perform at home on their own and said it will help pay for factories that can produce vaccines.

During the interview, Gates suggested therapeutic treatments for sick people that could begin to develop in four to six months, but would take at least 18 months to develop a safe and effective vaccine.

"There is an approach called RNA vaccine used by Companies such as Moderna, CureVac and others, which in 2015 we identified as very promising for pandemics and other applications as well. And so, if all goes well with the RNA approach, we could really beat the 18 months. "

However, he noted that vaccines are not very good, especially for elderly patients.

"We do not want to create unrealistic expectations. The effectiveness of vaccines in the elderly is always a huge challenge. You know, it turns out that the flu vaccine is not as effective in the elderly. Most of the benefit comes from younger people who do not spread the virus because they are vaccinated. "

He also dismissed the idea that there are many asymptomatic cases of coronavirus spreading the disease, which would make the COVID-19 mortality rate much lower than previously reported. "It is very unlikely that there are many asymptomatic cases that never happen by chance and infect people," he said.

"For countries that have done extensive testing, such as Germany and China, Gates says the mortality rate is about 1% or 1,2%."

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